Warnock Leads Walker in Georgia Runoff Poll

Warnock Leads Walker in Georgia Runoff Poll

In the Georgia Senate runoff, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is ahead of Republican challenger Herschel Walker by just 2 percentage points, according to a recent study from Emerson College Polling and The Hill.

According to the poll conducted on Thursday, 49 percent of those who were highly likely to vote indicated they would support Warnock, as opposed to 47 percent who said they would support Walker. Separately, 4% of respondents said they were unsure of their vote; this poll’s error margin virtually ties the two candidates.

When asked which candidate they were leaning toward, undecided voters raised their support for Warnock to 51% while decreasing their support for Walker to 49%. However, a larger margin was seen when respondents were asked who they thought would win the Georgia Senate runoff regardless of who they supported: 57 percent predicted Warnock would win, compared to 43 percent who predicted Walker would win.

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The change occurs less than a week before Georgia’s runoff election, which is the final Senate vote of the November midterm elections. After defeating former Georgia senator Kelly Loeffler in a special election in 2020, Warnock is running for his first full term in government. However, neither he nor Walker received the required majority of votes to avoid a runoff.

According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “Warnock’s base lies with people under 50 — a 55% majority favor him for re-election — but Walker retains a similar 55% majority among those over 50.” The early vote splits roughly 29 points in Warnock’s favor, 63% to 34%, while the uncounted votes split eight points in Walker’s favor, 52% to 44%.

Even though the ballot test was well within the poll’s margin of error, the majority of respondents would be shocked if Walker won. Roughly one in five Republicans anticipate their nominee losing. Since the most recent pre-general election poll earlier this month, when people were almost evenly split on whether Warnock or Walker would win, this shows a major shift, he continued.

Walker faces several challenges, including the fact that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who easily won reelection last month, is also on the ballot. This is even though the midterm atmosphere was supposed to favor Republicans.

Additionally, given that the race won’t alter Democratic dominance of the upper chamber, it’s possible that GOP voters would feel less motivated to turn out given that the November midterm elections established that Democrats would at least be preserving their majority in the Senate. 888 extremely likely voters participated in the Nov. 28–Nov. 30 Emerson College Polling–The Hill survey. Plus or minus 3.2 percentage points is the error margin.